AIMaddeness Playoff Picture — After Week 16 (Going Into Week 17)

AI Maddeness Playoff Picture — After Week 16 (Going Into Week 17)

Ruleset: 2000-era NFL format (Madden 2001 Season Mode): 3 division winners + 3 wild cards per conference; top two seeds get byes. This page focuses on clinching paths plus the seeding tiebreaks we confirmed in this chat.

AFC

Clinched

Jets — AFC East Champs

Raiders — AFC West Champs

Titans — AFC Central Champs (#3 seed locked)

Broncos — Wild Card Clinched

Two AFC Wild Card spots remain, primarily determined by Dolphins @ Patriots and Vikings @ Colts. (Denver’s playoff berth is clinched — and Denver is also effectively locked into the top Wild Card slot via tiebreaks: even if Denver loses and the Dolphins or Patriots win to finish tied, Denver holds the edge (common-games / head-to-head).)

Week 17 games that decide the AFC

Game	Why it matters
Dolphins @ Patriots	Winner clinches. Loser can still qualify depending on Colts result.
Vikings @ Colts	Colts are win-and-in, and also the key “help” lever for Dolphins.
49ers @ Broncos	Denver’s result affects record, but Denver keeps the AFC #4 seed even in a 9–7 tie with the Dolphins or Patriots (Denver wins the relevant tiebreaks).

AFC clinching scenarios (Wild Cards)

Team	Clinch with…	Eliminated with…
Colts (8–7)	WIN vs Vikings LOSS + HELP Colts lose AND Dolphins beat Patriots	LOSS Colts lose AND Patriots beat Dolphins
Patriots (8–7)	WIN vs Dolphins	LOSS to Dolphins
Dolphins (8–7)	WIN vs Patriots LOSS + HELP Dolphins lose AND Colts lose	LOSS Dolphins lose AND Colts win

AFC multi-team branches can reduce to division record, then common games, then conference record depending on who gets “filtered out” first.

AFC seeding notes (seeds 1–4)

Seed	What can still change in Week 17
#1–#3	Division champs are set; ordering is by overall record, then standard tiebreaks.
#3	Titans are locked at #3 as the AFC Central champion. They cannot reach #2 (Raiders’ winning % stays higher), and wild cards cannot pass division winners.
#4	Highest Wild Card. Denver is locked at #4: in a 9–7 tie, Denver stays ahead of the Dolphins on common-games record, and ahead of the Patriots via head-to-head.

NFC

Clinched

Rams — NFC West Champs

Packers — NFC Central Champs (#3 seed locked)

NFC East is NOT clinched: Dallas leads, but Washington can still win the division with WAS win + DAL loss. Two NFC Wild Card spots remain; the realistic race is Buccaneers, Falcons, Lions.

Week 17 games that decide the NFC

Game	Why it matters
Cowboys @ Titans	Affects NFC East title and the #1 seed race (because Dallas can match the Rams’ record).
Cardinals @ Washington	Washington clinches NFC East only if they win and Dallas loses (division record swing).
Rams @ Saints	Controls whether the Rams can jump to #1 seed (only possible if Dallas loses).
Buccaneers @ Packers	Win-and-in for Tampa. Loss opens the door for Detroit (with help) and/or keeps Atlanta alive.
Chiefs @ Falcons	Win-and-in for Atlanta. Loss opens the door for Detroit (with help) and/or keeps Tampa alive.
Bears @ Lions	Detroit must win and needs at least one of Tampa/Atlanta to lose.

NFC East clinching (Cowboys vs Washington)

Team	Clinch NFC East with…	Notes
Cowboys (11–4)	WIN @ Titans WAS LOSS (regardless of DAL result)	If Dallas loses and Washington wins, the teams tie on record and split head-to-head (1–1), but Washington wins on division record (WAS improves vs NFC East; DAL does not).
Washington (10–5)	WIN + DAL LOSS	This is the only path: Washington must win and get Dallas to lose.

NFC seeding notes (seeds 1–4)

Item	What Week 17 can change
#1 seed (bye)	Dallas clinches #1 with a WIN (even if the Rams also win). If Dallas and St. Louis finish tied, Madden checks conference record first; if that’s tied too, it goes to common games (Dallas holds the edge there). If Dallas loses and the Rams win, the Rams take #1 outright on record.
#3 seed	Packers are locked at #3 regardless of Week 17. They cannot catch the top record teams for #1/#2, and no wild card can be seeded above a division champion.
#1 seed tiebreak: DAL vs STL	No head-to-head. If both finish tied (ex: 12–4), Madden checks conference record first; if that is tied, it goes to common games (Dallas holds the edge), before reaching strength metrics.
What if WAS wins NFC East at 11–5	If Washington wins the division and the Rams also finish 11–5, the Rams win the seed tiebreak because they have head-to-head over Washington (Rams 37–27 in Week 12).
#4 seed	In this ruleset, #4 is the top wild card (best non-division winner). It is driven by overall record, then the standard wild card tiebreak stack (conference record can be decisive in Madden).

Key takeaway: Rams cannot pass Dallas if Dallas wins — even if records tie, the tiebreak chain (conference record → common games) keeps Dallas on top. Washington can win the NFC East, but cannot beat the Rams for #1 in an 11–5 tie because of head-to-head.

NFC clinching scenarios (Wild Cards)

Team	Clinch with…	Eliminated with…
Buccaneers (8–7)	WIN @ Packers LOSS + HELP Lions lose OR Falcons lose	LOSS Bucs lose AND Lions win AND Falcons win
Falcons (8–7)	WIN vs Chiefs LOSS + HELP Lions lose OR Buccaneers lose	LOSS Falcons lose AND Lions win AND Buccaneers win
Lions (7–8)	WIN + HELP Lions win AND (Bucs lose OR Falcons lose)	LOSS Lions lose WIN + NO HELP Lions win AND Bucs win AND Falcons win

If multiple teams land at 8–8, Madden can elevate conference record early in the stack; head-to-head only applies after the tie “filters” to a valid subset.

Next step (if you want it): I can add a compact “Week 17 outcomes → final NFC seeds 1–6” matrix once we confirm Packers’ final record inputs from your standings table.