Division champions are set.
Denver has its wild card.
And now three 8–7 teams are fighting for the final two AFC playoff spots.
Welcome to Week 17.
The AFC Seeds Are Taking Shape
The top four spots in the AFC are already spoken for.
The New York Jets are AFC East champions and hold the No. 1 seed.
The Oakland Raiders have clinched the AFC West and sit in the No. 2 spot.
The Tennessee Titans are AFC Central champions and are locked into the No. 3 seed.
And the Denver Broncos have already clinched a wild-card berth and are locked into the No. 4 seed.
That leaves just two spots remaining.
And three teams want them.
Three Teams. Two Spots.
Entering Week 17, the AFC wild-card race comes down to three 8–7 teams:
Miami Dolphins — 8–7
New England Patriots — 8–7
Indianapolis Colts — 8–7
Only two of them will make the playoffs.
And almost everything depends on two games.
Dolphins at Patriots: Winner Is In
MIAMI DOLPHINS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Winner is in.
This is basically a playoff game one week early.
Both Miami and New England enter at 8–7.
The winner clinches a playoff berth.
For New England, the situation could not be simpler.
Win and the Patriots are in.
Lose and they’re out.
Miami has a little more breathing room.
A Dolphins victory puts them in immediately, but a Miami loss does not necessarily end their season.
If the Dolphins lose and Indianapolis also loses to Minnesota, Miami can still sneak into the postseason through the tiebreaker system.
So New England has no fallback.
Miami does.
But neither team wants to depend on it.
Win the game. Make the playoffs.
Vikings at Colts: Indianapolis Controls Its Destiny
MINNESOTA VIKINGS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Colts win and in.
Indianapolis has perhaps the cleanest path of anyone in the wild-card race.
Beat Minnesota and the Colts are in.
No scoreboard watching.
No common-games calculations.
No Madden mathematical insanity.
Just win.
If Indianapolis loses, however, things get more complicated.
The Colts can still make the playoffs with a loss if Miami beats New England.
But if Indianapolis loses and New England beats Miami, the Colts are eliminated.
So Indianapolis has a back door.
They’d probably rather not use it.
The Strange Little AFC Wild-Card Triangle
Here’s where the final weekend gets fun.
Because Miami and New England play each other, one of those teams must finish 8–8.
That creates three basic outcomes:
- Colts win: Indianapolis is in, along with the Miami–New England winner.
- Colts lose + Miami wins: Miami and Indianapolis are in.
- Colts lose + New England wins: New England and Miami are in.
Which means there is one especially strange possibility:
Miami can lose its final game and still make the playoffs.
Indianapolis can also lose and survive—but only if Miami beats New England.
New England is the only one of the three without a second route.
For the Patriots:
Win and in.
Lose and out.
Denver Is Locked Into the No. 4 Seed
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS AT DENVER BRONCOS
Denver has clinched. No. 4 seed locked.
Denver’s Week 17 result can change its final record, but it cannot change its playoff seed.
Even if the Broncos finish 9–7 and end up tied with Miami or New England, Denver owns the relevant tiebreakers.
Against Miami, Denver holds the edge through common games.
Against New England, the Broncos hold the head-to-head advantage.
So the Broncos can enter Week 17 knowing exactly where they will be when the postseason begins.
AFC No. 4 seed.
Tennessee Is Locked at No. 3
The Titans’ position is equally settled.
Tennessee has clinched the AFC Central and is locked into the No. 3 seed.
The Titans cannot climb above the Jets or Raiders, and no wild-card team can pass a division champion in the playoff seeding.
So Tennessee’s destination is already set.
No. 3 seed.
The Week 17 AFC Games That Matter
Dolphins at Patriots
Winner is in.
New England is eliminated with a loss.
Miami can still survive a loss if Indianapolis also loses.
Vikings at Colts
Indianapolis is win-and-in.
A loss means the Colts need Miami to beat New England.
49ers at Broncos
Denver has already clinched and remains the No. 4 seed regardless of the outcome.
Three Teams. Two Chairs.
That’s the AFC story heading into the final week.
The division champions have been crowned.
The Jets sit at No. 1.
The Raiders sit at No. 2.
Tennessee is locked at No. 3.
Denver is locked at No. 4.
And now Miami, New England, and Indianapolis are fighting over the final two spots.
Dolphins at Patriots.
Vikings at Colts.
Those two games will decide almost everything.
For Miami and Indianapolis, there are escape routes.
For New England, there aren’t.
Win and you’re in.
Lose and the Madden 2001 season may be over.
Week 17.
One final afternoon of playoff mathematics.
Then the AFC field is set.
AI Maddeness 2001 is a fictional season played on Madden NFL 2001 for PlayStation. All standings, playoff scenarios, tiebreakers and results are from the AI Maddeness universe.